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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."