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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.